The outbreak of war always results in an increased demand for mineral products, and when the belligerents include almost every country in the world, the impact on mineral industries is enormous. Depending on location and conditions, the effects may be favorable or unfavorable; in some countries lack of labor, scarcity of shipping facilities, or other causes, may lead to a marked reduction in activity, or even complete cessation, while inclusion of the area in the actual zone of war may result in heavy damage, or even complete destruction of the entire industrial capacity. This means that other areas more favorably situated are called on to supply not only their normal share of the increased demand, but also to make up the deficits from areas that fall short.
In the present war we find that the usual effects have been greatly intensified, partly because of the wide areas covered, but mainly because of the nature of the war itself. The new type of mechanized warfare calls for much larger amounts of minerals and metals than have formerly been needed, so much so in fact, that the failure to anticipate this additional load and to realize its magnitude are the chief causes for the marked shortages of nearly all mineral products at the present time.
While data for 1941 are far from complete, sufficient information has been received to serve as a basis for approximate 1941 numbers. In general they will be found to have increased over the 1940 values, though in a few cases there have been decreases, and there would in all probability be more decreases if the data were complete. In the list of decreases we find diamonds, gold, and silver. This is to be expected, as in times of stress production must be concentrated on those materials that are the more essential. If data were available from which to determine their status, it is likely that we should also find decreases for manganese, phosphates and potash, and possibly even for chromium. Zinc probably increased, but by an amount that cannot be determined. Others show increases of varying degrees of magnitude, with aluminum far in the lead. Tungsten and copper are also prominent.
Due to the fact that most of the heavy changes are to be found among products with relatively smaller tonnages, the world index, in which all of these are combined in a weighted average, does not show any very great change, rising to 163 for 1941, as compared with 159 for 1940 and 152 for 1939. For comparison with earlier years, it might be added that the world index corresponding to the 1929 prosperity peak was 136, the depression low was 88, and the first year to surpass the former high of 1929 was 1937. To the uninitiated the increases of the war years may seem low, but this is due largely to the fact that these are average figures, and that changes in some countries have been much higher, while in others there have been serious decreases.
To come to concrete figures for some of these products, world production of coal is thought to have increased in 1941 to a level in excess of 1,600,000,000 metric tons, but information is rather indefinite. The petroleum output increased 3 per cent over 1940, to 2,224,000,000 bbl. Statistics on pig iron are entirely lacking for all of the important European producers, but world output is thought to have increased by about 5 per cent in 1940, and by about the same amount in 1941. Manganese and chromium are both in such an unfavorable position, especially with respect to the main centers of production, that decreases in output are to be anticipated, but by how much cannot be determined. A tentative estimate gives tungsten a 5 per cent increase, to 47,000 tons. On nickel no reports have been made except that production has increased in both 1940 and 1941. There are some indications that the 1940 increase was of the order of 5 per cent, while that of 1941 was more like 10 per cent. On the basis of these rough assumptions, world output of nickel in 1940 may be estimated at 124,000 tons, and in 1941 at 136,000 tons.
Complete information on copper is lacking, but known increases seem to indicate an output of at least 2,550,000 tons, an increase of 7 per cent. Lead production is estimated to have increased 3 per cent, to 1,850,000 tons. The increase in zinc production in the United States has been doubtless sufficient to more than offset any decreases that may have been encountered in Europe, but information is so scanty that it is useless to speculate on the amounts. Aluminum production has expanded more than that of any other product on which information is available, the 1941 total of 1,045,000 tons being an increase of 32 per cent. Tin output showed a small increase, probably in the neighborhood of 5 per cent, with a total that approximated 250,000 tons. Preliminary estimates indicate a drop of 3 per cent for gold, to 40,400,000 oz.; and of 4 per cent for silver, to 265,000,000 oz. Diamond production is uncertain, but apparently declined by about 25 per cent, to 9,345,000 carats.
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