1941: Petroleum

World Production.

World production of petroleum in 1940 increased 3 per cent over 1939, but decreased about the same amount in 1941, due to restrictions in European markets and shortage of shipping facilities. The accompanying table shows the output of the chief producers, arranged according to the producing areas. Full data for 1941 were not available at the time of writing, and the estimates for the first half of the year were based on data collected by the Oil and Gas Journal.

United States Production.

Production in the United States in 1940 increased 6 per cent over 1939; during the first half of 1941 output dropped 3 per cent below that of the corresponding period of 1940, because of decreased exports, but in the second half of the year increased domestic consumption more than offset this, and gave a year's total about 4 per cent ahead of 1940. The U. S. Bureau of Mines data for the first 11 months of 1941 gave a total output of 1,275,889,000 barrels, while the Oil and Gas Journal total to Dec. 13 was 1,323,400,000; both of these figures give an estimate for the full year that will run close to 1,400,000,000 barrels. Daily output by the end of the year was approximately 4,100,000 bbl., and it has been estimated that this will increase to 5,000,000 bbl. by midyear of 1942.

During the first three quarters of 1941 imports of both crude and refined were above the 1940 levels for the same period, the total increase being 12 per cent; at the same time, exports decreased by 17 per cent, making a material reduction in the net exports, from 43,000,000 barrels to 18,000,000. Consumption increased ahead of available supply, and stocks were reduced accordingly.

In the production by states, Texas led, with 36 per cent of the reported 1941 output (10 months), followed by California with 17 per cent, Oklahoma with 11 per cent, and Illinois with 10 per cent, these four states accounting for three-quarters of the total; the addition of Louisiana with 8 per cent and Kansas with 6 per cent, the only other states with outputs of comparable size, raises the total for the six states to 88 per cent, leaving only 12 per cent for the remainder. By fields, the Mid-Continent leads with more than half of the total, with California, Gulf Coast and the Eastern States roughly sharing the remainder, except for 3 per cent from the Rocky Mountain area. Among the major producing states, the reported outputs for the first 10 months of 1941 compared as follows with the same period of 1940: Texas showed a fractional increase; California increased 2 per cent; Oklahoma declined 1 per cent; Louisiana increased 10 per cent, and Kansas 24 per cent; the totals for these major states were almost identical in the two years, leaving practically the entire increase of 1941 to have been supplied by the minor producers, among which Mississippi more than trebled over 1940, Indiana increased by more than half, and Wyoming by a sixth; other states had only small changes, except for Michigan and Pennsylvania, with losses of 25 per cent and 11 per cent respectively.

Gasoline.

The outstanding refined product of the petroleum industry is gasoline. Of 1,121,000,000 barrels of crude run to stills in the first 10 months of 1941, slightly more than half came out as motor fuel or aviation gasoline. Both of these products are highly important in the war program because of their magnitude and the uses to which they are put. Quite a furor was created during the summer and fall of 1941 by attempts on the part of the Petroleum Coordinator to reduce gasoline consumption in the Atlantic Coast area, because of a threatened shortage of supply, and there has been some talk of rationing for the country as a whole. It must of course be recognized that the war program will require large amounts of both motor fuel and aviation gasoline, and that it is quite possible the industry may not be able to boost production sufficiently to carry the full load. Furthermore, there is some question as to whether it should be permitted to do so even if it could, for a number of reasons. The reduction in new car output may cut consumption somewhat, but not greatly if at all, as this will only mean that the old cars will remain in use, instead of being replaced by new ones, and in most cases the old cars have a greater fuel consumption than new ones. Limitation and control of the sale of automobile tires will have a much greater effect, and some feel that this alone will be sufficient control over use of gasoline.

While it is almost certain that some action will have to be taken with regard to motor fuel supply, the industry views with some alarm a major disturbance of its heaviest market, even though it means only a shift of the product to other uses, and not a reduction of output. It has been argued that Washington seems to consider the cars in use simply as a mass of pleasure vehicles, and that this is a time when such luxuries can be dispensed with; as opposed to this view, it is argued that the bulk of the cars see little use for pleasure, but are used primarily for personal transportation from home to work, citing defense plants where provisions have been made for the parking of 10,000 cars. On the other hand, it must be recognized that while this is strictly true for some who live in places with no public transportation, for a majority of workers the use of a private car is a convenience rather than a necessity, as most of them could, at some sacrifice of time and comfort, use public transportation to their work. From this angle, it is an economic waste to use 10,000 cars, each of which carries only one or two passengers, when possibly 500 busses could handle the bulk of the load, leaving only those outside the bus route areas to use private cars. This is a problem on which some constructive work will have to be done in the coming year.

Aviation Gasoline.

The problem of aviation gasoline supply is in a somewhat different category, as much of it will be needed for the war program. If production can not be kept up to demand, it may be necessary to ration supplies to commercial aviation. Daily production of aviation gasoline had increased from 41,000 bbl. in October 1940 to 67,000 bbl. in October 1941, while expansion plans under way call for 100,000 bbl. by the end of 1942, and eventually 120,000 bbl. This will of course mean a proportionate reduction in output of motor gasoline, or an increase in crude output to cover the addition. Late in December 1941, the entire production capacity for aviation gasoline was pooled under Government control in order to expedite expansion, production and distribution.

Axis and Allied Oil Supplies.

In conclusion, let us review briefly the oil supplies of the opposing sides in the present conflict. Under Axis ownership or control we have the outputs coming from Albania, Austria, Czechoslovakia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, part of Poland, Rumania, and Japan, with a total output in 1940 of about 57,000,000 barrels, or less than 3 per cent of the world total. Under Allied ownership or control we find Bahrein Island, Borneo, Burma, Canada, Egypt, India, Iran, Iraq, Netherlands Indies, part of Poland, Sakhalin, Saudi Arabia, Trinidad, and the Soviet Union, with a 1940 total of 449,000,000 barrels, or 21 per cent of the world total. To this substantial lead, there has now been added, by the entry of the United States into the war, an amount more than three times as large as the former Allied total, bringing the present total to 1,800,000,000, or 84 per cent of the world total. Napoleon said that his army traveled on its stomach, but in modern mechanized warfare the gasoline supply, rather than the food supply, is the controlling factor. It is evident from these figures that if the Axis powers can be blockaded from receiving oil supplies outside their own area, or from adding appreciably to the areas under control, the eventual result is a foregone conclusion. See also CHEMISTRY; TRANSPORTATION.