In 1940 the world mineral industries were called on to supply an enormously increased amount of raw materials to meet the demands of a full year in which a large portion of the world was at war. Up to the time of the First World War, man power was still the ruling force in warfare, since each time some new device for spreading death and destruction was added to the fighting equipment, additional man power was required to transport, operate and service it.
With the coming of the Second World War we see an alteration of this previous trend, in that man power is now being relegated to second place, and machine power steps into the leading role. This has come about through the application to the methods of warfare of the same principles that have substituted machine power for man power in industry. In this new type of mechanized warfare, the use of machine power makes it possible to maintain a heavier striking power in weapons by the use of a smaller man power than ever before. This, however, does not reduce the effect of war on the mineral industries, but intensifies it, for there is required not only metal for an increased supply of munitions, but for the mechanical equipment as well. In this connection it might well be mentioned that the newly added load imposed by this change is one of the major factors leading up to the shortage of many metals and minerals, concerning which there has been so much comment in the last few months.
Possibly as good a way as any to present in a small space a picture of the progress that has been made in the world mineral industries as a whole during recent years is to reproduce a portion of the Mineral Industry table of world index numbers for mineral production, in which 16 of the most important of the mineral products have been selected to represent the trends in the entire group of mineral products, including the metals derived from them.
In glancing over this table, it will be noted that in 1940 only phosphates and possibly potash showed a loss, with the same basic reason for both, that is, war disturbances in or near some of the leading producing areas, and the loss of markets in countries no longer accessible to exports. With pig iron and manganese there was no improvement in 1940, though the former had increased heavily in 1939, while the latter declined somewhat, the heavy outputs in the immediately preceding years having been partly for the building up of stocks, rather than for immediate use. In the ferroalloy group there were heavy increases in 1940, with chromium advancing 25 points, and tungsten 45 points, the second largest advance in the list. In the nonferrous group, lead and zinc failed to maintain the rates of increase set in 1939, and showed only moderate increases, but aluminum with 60 points, tin with 39 points, and copper with 31 points advanced more in 1940 than in 1939. In the fuel group, coal showed only a moderate increase, with petroleum somewhat heavier; in connection with these figures, attention should be called to the fact that for the past 25 years or more, changes in the coal index have been merely alternations of high and low outputs, first on one side and then on the other of the mean, while petroleum has had a consistent increasing trend that has been almost without a downward break. Gold and silver had only moderate increases, but that of diamonds was one of the features of the year, with a rise of 34 points, and all three have been showing consistent increases over several years past.
In the consolidation of the data for these separate industries into a world index, we have 1940 with an index number of 159, as compared with 152 in 1939 and 139 in 1938, the business recession in that year having caused a break in the rising trend that had been maintained since the turn of the depression. For comparison, it might be added that the 1929 high was 136, the depression low in 1932 was 88, and that 1937 was the first year to surpass the 1929 high.
It is unfortunate that data are not available on which to base index numbers for 1941, to compare with these earlier years; doubtless when these data do become known, it will be found that 1941 registered an increase over 1940 of about the same magnitude as that of 1940 over 1939; much more than this can not be anticipated, for while some countries, especially the United States, is making enormous increases in output, other countries are seriously handicapped and will show decreases. See also METALLURGY; MINERALOGY.
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