1940: Philippine Islands

Political Problems.

With the half-way mark in the ten-year period of transition to independence reached Nov. 15, opinion in the Philippines Commonwealth is divided on the question of re-examining the Independence Act. President Quezon is unalterably opposed to the continuation of the present Commonwealth arrangement after 1946, and in a speech commemorating its fifth anniversary, asserted that its accomplishments to date demonstrated the ability of the Filipinos to manage their country's affairs alone. In a statement before the Assembly he asserted that the only arrangement he would consider is one which would give the Philippines full control over immigration, imports, exports, currency and related financial subjects, as well as the right to conclude commercial treaties with other nations, without United States supervision or control. On the other hand, Vice-President Sergio Osmeña has proposed a Philippines-American partnership after independence, 'on a basis of equality,' presumably some form of dominion status. Manuel Roxas, Finance Secretary, has asked for a ten-year extension of trade privileges after 1946 and continued naval and military protection by the United States. Fear of Japanese aggression, the possibility of a conflict between the United States and Japan, the still-unsolved problems for Philippines economy which the shift to independence will bring, as well as internal politics, all account for this divided attitude. Senator Tydings, chairman of the Territories Committee and part author of the Independence Act, regards the matter closed. Likewise Francis B. Sayre, in an interview after four months as High Commissioner, expressed his belief in the United States' departure from the islands in 1946, partly on the ground of the American taxpayers' unwillingness to support the necessary costs of defense. Moreover, the groups in Congress which pressed for passage of the Tydings-McDuffie Act are as strong as, if not stronger than, in 1934. Mr. Sayre is opposed to permanent tariff preferences for the Philippines, but not to a temporary arrangement to prevent 'drastic economic dislocation.'

President Roosevelt has given his approval to amendments to the Philippines Constitution which were endorsed by a national vote. These restore a bicameral legislature and replace the six-year presidential term, without re-election, with a four-year term and eligibility for one re-election.

Internal Affairs.

The National Assembly on Aug. 10, by a vote of 62-1, conferred wide emergency powers on President Quezon, designed to meet the economic emergency resulting from the war in Europe, which has virtually stopped Philippines trade with that continent and, besides increasing unemployment, has caused a substantial reduction of public revenues. The President will now have power to prohibit lockouts and strikes and to control wages, hours, profits, rents and prices, the distribution of labor, transportation, including shipping, and food supplies. This concentration of power, combined with utterances made by President Quezon regarding additional restrictions on civil rights and his characterization of the two-party system as a 'fetish,' evoked a vigorous protest from the Manila Civil Liberties Union against these 'alarming trends towards totalitarianism.'

A new immigration bill, applying annual quotas to every nationality, was approved by the National Assembly May 2, by a vote of 67-1. Official protest against the measure has been voiced in Japan. The figure fixed is a relatively small proportion of the Japanese who have entered the Philippines, especially the rich island of Mindanao, during the last few years, net Japanese immigration in the first three years of the Commonwealth having been over 1,300 yearly. Secretary Hull refused Japan's request to the United States to try to secure modification of the limitation. Recently Ex-Foreign Minister Arita expressed a willingness to conclude a non-aggression pact with the Philippines and his approval of a pact 'neutralizing' the islands. Geographic propinquity and the complementary character of the economy of the two countries suggest a re-orientation of Philippines-Japanese relations.

Questions of Defense.

Proximity of the Philippines to the Netherlands Indies and the island of Borneo and Japan's association with the Axis powers give sharp significance to the question of Philippines defense. President Quezon has asserted the Islands' present inability to repel foreign aggression. Instead of an intensification of Commonwealth defense measures, however, there has been a drastic retrenchment in the defense program, including the yearly training of 20,000 rather than 40,000 men. Gen. Douglas MacArthur, military adviser since 1934, on the other hand maintains that, at the expiration of the Commonwealth period, the Islands will be able to defend themselves with their own native army. It is generally believed by military and naval experts that they could not be held against a sustained Japanese assault of any proportions. Close cooperation between the United States troops stationed in the Philippines, estimated at about 10,000 men (including the Philippines Scouts), and the Philippines Army of about 150,000, has been promised by Secretary of War Stimson as long as the Islands are under the United States. Reinforcement of aviation units and of the Asiatic fleet has brought Philippines defenses to a high point. As at present defended, however, the Islands provide no satisfactory base for major operations by the United States fleet, and expert opinion in the United States considers the cost of making them impregnable in the neighborhood of a billion dollars. To make them even reasonably defensible would call for a garrison of 100,000 men, supported by at least 500 aircraft and a substantial naval force.

The Strategic Materials Act, which permits the President of the United States to restrict shipments of essential materials and has effected an embargo on oil and scrap iron exports to Japan, does not apply to the Philippine Islands which, as a source of over a million tons of high-grade iron ore annually for Japan, are of vital importance to that country's heavy industries and war machine. Philippines copper, chromite and manganese are other base metals which are available to Japanese industry. Increased defense needs of the United States may create sufficient demand for Philippines ores to deflect some of this trade from Japan.