Accident prevention efforts have been, on the whole, more successful in 1938 than in any previous year. Accidental deaths from all causes will probably fall 10 per cent below 1937, to the lowest figure since 1933.
A reduction in fatal motor-vehicle accidents will contribute largely to this decline, with a probable reduction of 20 per cent below 1937. In only one other year, 1932, did motor vehicle deaths show a decline from the previous year. As in the case of all accidental deaths, the 1938 traffic-fatality total will be the lowest since 1933.
Fatalities in work accidents also have fallen sharply in 1938, as have deaths in public accidents not involving motor vehicles. Only home accidents threaten to exact a death toll in 1938 equal to or larger than the 1937 figure.
The improvement in safety has been practically nation-wide. For example, ten months' records on traffic deaths indicate that 40 states, of 43 reporting, reduced fatalities in 1938. Approximately three-fourths of all United States cities with populations exceeding 10,000 have either reduced their traffic deaths in 1938 or have held their own with 1937.
These improvements in 1938, while distinctly encouraging to those who have been especially active in the accident prevention field, should not be allowed to obscure the magnitude of the problem that still exists. Even with the anticipated reduction, the all-accident death total in 1938 will be only slightly below 100,000, and traffic fatalities will exceed 30,000. Accidents will still remain the most important single cause of death between the ages of 5 and 19, and may very likely retain their place as the second most important cause of death among males of all ages.
Since accidents are no respecters of age, residence, profession, or economic status, all would like to see the 1938 reductions continued. The possibility of such sustained improvement depends basically on determining what brought about the decreases in 1938 so that those same remedies can be continued in 1939, and in future years, with the expectation of producing similar results.
In the first place, we should ask whether there was any less exposure to accidents in 1938 than in 1937. The general answer is that there was a somewhat greater total exposure, in view of a one per cent increase in our population.
How about traffic accidents? Such accidents grow out of motor vehicle travel on streets and highways. Did such travel decline in 1938? Figures for the first ten months of the year say no; gasoline consumption, which is our best measure of motor vehicle travel, was a fraction of a per cent higher this year than last.
Work accidents arise out of employment, and, in the absence of preventive efforts, would be expected to vary with the amount of employment. Did employment decline in 1938? Probably yes, although conclusive figures are not available to indicate the amount. Sample figures from National Safety Council members and other safety-minded companies indicate, however, that their accidents were reduced more in 1938 than can be explained on the basis of decreasing employment.
If the 1938 decline in accidents is not explainable on the basis of less exposure to accidents, what is the explanation? Was some remarkable discovery made in safety during the year? Some new medium of instruction, some notably effective piece of legislation, some unusual advance in the physical or chemical sciences?
To all these questions the answer is no. Those who have studied the question most carefully feel that, more than anything else, the fine safety record of 1938 is simply the result of an accumulated effort during previous years.
In industry such improvement is not unexpected. In fact, the present annual total of occupational deaths is well below the number that occurred twenty-five years ago, when the exposure to such accidents was appreciably less on account of a smaller working population.
But in traffic accidents, particularly, the 1938 reduction is unique. Therefore, perhaps the greatest interest has been in trying to determine the reason for such a reduction in the face of a sustained amount of travel.
The traffic accident problem has been attacked from three angles — engineering, education, and enforcement. Every known remedy for traffic accidents has been embraced somewhere in these three fields of activity. But such activities, to be effective, take intelligent planning, proper financing, and, most of all, public support.
What seems to have happened in 1938 is: (1) public officials and private agencies have been bringing to a head their long-range planning; (2) legislators and administrators have been willing to spend more money to save lives on our streets and highways; and (3) the general public has finally come to realize the seriousness of the problem and has, to a greater extent than ever before, given its support to both public and private efforts in the field of traffic safety.
It can be fairly said that 1938 highways and cars are safer than ever before, that careless and incompetent drivers have been kept under better control, and that traffic engineering practices have progressed. School safety work has continued to improve, and safety campaigns reaching the general public have been better conceived and carried out. Newspapers, magazines, and the radio have contributed enormously to a better understanding of the problem and to a knowledge of the practicable remedies.
Will accident prevention efforts in 1939 be as successful as in 1938? The answer depends on how badly the American people really want continued improvement. Safety is purchasable. The price is to be found in personal caution, plus safety organization, plus planning and control by public agencies. By paying this price — and a moderate one it is — any state, any community, any industry can improve its accident experience.
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