1944: United States

Economic Review.

Although American economic activity, as revealed by certain indices, showed a slight decline from that of 1943, as a whole the artificially stimulated war prosperity continued at a high level. In many fields, it surpassed that of the year 1943. Preliminary estimates of the Department of Commerce put the national income for the year at $159,000,000,000 and the national production at $197,000,000,000, an increase in both cases of about 5 per cent over 1943 and representing all-time records. The increases in income and production were made early in 1944 with the business trend remaining steady thereafter. The Department of Commerce attributed this steadiness to the stabilization of war expenditures, which increased only about 5 per cent over 1943 while absorbing more than two-fifths of the national products.

Production devoted to private use went largely to consumers who spent $97,000,000,000 for goods and services, an increase of 6 per cent over 1943. This gain, however, probably reflected an increase in prices rather than much advance in volume.

Finance.

The bulk of the advance in national income occurred in wages and salaries, with about half of the income accounted for by military payrolls, government payments to soldiers' dependents and mustering-out pay. Net income of farm operators and other unincorporated business showed but slight gains over 1943. Corporate profits continued large despite higher taxes. A proportion of these profits, however, were retained by the corporations, since dividends rose but 3.3 per cent over 1943. The Department of Commerce predicted that income payments to individuals would exceed $155,000,000,000.

The Government estimated that taxes absorbed only 15 per cent of the national income which left a considerable gap between total income and total expenditures for taxes and commodities. This resulted in an increase in savings of both individuals and corporations. The Fourth War Loan, floated in February 1944, asked for $14,000,000,000 and received $16,700,000,000. Subscriptions to the Fifth War Loan of June, for which $16,000,000,000 was asked, amounted to $20,639,000,000. The Sixth War Loan of December set its goal at $14,000,000,000 but received over $20,360,000,000 at the close of the 'formal' drive. At the end of the year $162,000,000,000 in war bonds were outstanding, of which $39,000,000,000 were held by individuals.

This surplus available for savings was also illustrated by the fact that investment banks sold in 1944 the largest amount of new bonds and stocks in four years. A total of $2,299,346,000, represented by 198 bond issues, was placed on the market, compared with $1,131,391,000 for 152 issues in 1943. New stock offerings aggregating $339,177,000, were also the greatest since 1940. These sales were, of course, in addition to United States Government bonds sold in three war-loan campaigns. This surplus was also reflected in the year-end bank reports. The 15 leading banks of New York City, for example, showed an increase of 10.7 per cent in their resources for the final quarter of 1944, with deposits up 11 per cent. Resources of the banks were increasingly invested in Federal bonds. These 15 banks at the close of 1944 held $16,029,600,000 in Federal bonds or 57.8 per cent of their resources, comparing with $13,655,000,000 or 56.4 per cent a year previous. This was typical of the nation as a whole.

Although economic activity in certain areas surpassed 1943, generally speaking it held fairly close to that of 1943. The New York Times' index of business activity (estimated normal = 100) gave 148.2 for Dec. 25, 1943, and 139.6 for Dec. 23, 1944. Industrial production, according to the Federal Reserve index, never reached during 1944 the October-November 1943 peak of 247 but averaged 236 for the year, against 239 for 1943. This slight decline was in part due to the fact that 1,750,000 persons were drawn into the Armed Service during 1944. The Federal Reserve index showed that factory employment declined from 168.3 in 1943 to 161.0 in 1944, although the payroll index rose from 316.4 to 320.

While industrial production decreased slightly, mineral output made a new record in 1944 with an output value of $8,543,000,000, or nearly a billion dollars more than in 1943. This record, said Secretary of the Interior Ickes, was 'particularly noteworthy because the nation skimmed much of the 'cream' from its mineral resources during the First World War.' Of this $5,524,000,000 was contributed by mineral fuels; $2,377,000,000 by metallic products, and $912,000 by non-metallic minerals. Owing to setbacks of war materials the production of iron ore declined 3 per cent, that of copper 9 per cent, while that of molybdenum, vanadium, gold, silver and other metals to a much greater extent. On the other hand crude petroleum with a production of 1,678,000,000 barrels went up to 11 per cent and natural gas 9 per cent. Bituminous coal production reached an all-time peak in 1944 with an estimated 620,000,000 tons. Anthracite also increased its production.

Encouraged by the Government, blessed by good weather, and spurred on by high prices, American agriculture as a whole produced 6 per cent more than in 1943. The features of the farm economy for the year were the corn crop of 3,228,361,000 bu., largest in history, and the record wheat harvest of 1,078,647,000 bu. The corn and wheat totals were respectively 15 and 10 per cent above the 1942-43 average. Milk production, estimated at 118,500,000,000 pounds, also was an all-time record, and 11 per cent higher than the ten-year average. Egg production in 1944 set a new mark of 5,164,000,000 dozen. This was done despite a decrease in farm population. The Department of Agriculture reported a decrease of 4,748,000 in the nation's farm population in four years, half being attributed to the 1942 migration to industry.

Farmers' income, it was believed, would surpass $20,000,000,000, more than double the $9,100,000,000 of 1940. The Federal Reserve Bulletin for December estimated that, on the basis of 100 for 1935-39, prices received by farmers for all crops averaged 201 in 1944, against 189 in 1943 and 91 in 1940.

The amazing record made by the railroads during the first two years of the war was surpassed in 1944, when records were again broken. Freight traffic moved by the railroads in 1944 amounted approximately to 740,000,000,000 ton-miles. This was 1.8 per cent above that of 1943, the previous record, and 2½ times the ton-miles moved in 1939. Freight car loadings totalled approximately 43,500,000 cars, an increase of 2½ per cent above the previous year. All this was done with virtually the same number of locomotives and with hardly more than a nominal increase in freight cars compared with 1939.

With but a slight increase in passenger cars, traffic of 96,000,000,000 passenger-miles was the greatest in railroad history. It was an increase of 9.3 per cent over 1943 and 4½ times over that of 1939. This unprecedented movement of passengers in 1944 resulted in part from Army troop movements. The railroads moved more than 10,700,000 in special cars alone, a figure which does not include the millions of service men traveling on furlough or other small groups moving on order. Railroad gross revenues increased, but the net income declined from the record year of 1942. The railways in 1944 purchased $1,300,000,000 worth of equipment, 17 per cent above the 1943 total.

Although domestic air lines operated in 1944 with a maximum of 38 fewer planes than in 1941, they carried about three times as much express and flew well over twice the pound-mileage of air mail carried in 1941. Airplanes also carried at least 200,000 more passengers than in 1943.

Although industry gave little encouragement to speculation by raising dividends, the average price of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange increased during the year. This happened despite the fact that trading was less in 1944 than in 1943. The market value of all listed stocks, which was $47,607,294,582 on Jan. 1, 1944, had risen to $53,591,644,063 on Dec. 1 and the average price from $31.96 to $36.14. The totals of listed bonds showed a market value of $90,274,071,634 on Jan. 1 and $101,377,604,946 on Dec. 1. The average market price had risen from $99.38 to $100.92.

SEVENTY-EIGHTH CONGRESS

President's Message.

The second session of the Seventy-Eighth Congress opened on Jan. 10. The following day the President presented his annual message to Congress including his recommendations for a legislative program. These, as the President presented them, were:

'1. A realistic tax-law which will tax all unreasonable profits, both individual and corporate, and reduce the ultimate cost of the war to our sons and daughters. The tax bill now under consideration by the Congress does not begin to meet this test.

'2. A continuation of the law for the renegotiation of war contracts — which will prevent exorbitant profits and assure fair prices to the government. For two long years I have pleaded with Congress to take undue profits out of the war.

'3. A cost of food law — which will enable the government (a) to place a reasonable floor under the prices the farmer may expect for his production, and (b) to place a ceiling on the prices a consumer will have to pay for the food he buys. This should apply to necessities only, and will require public funds to carry out. It will cost in appropriations about 1 per cent of the present annual cost of the war.

'4. Early enactment of the stabilization statute of October, 1942. This expires June 30, 1944, and if it is not extended well in advance, the country might just as well expect price chaos by summer. We cannot have stabilization by wishful thinking. We must take positive action to maintain the integrity of the American dollar.

'5. A national service law — which, for the duration of the war, will prevent strikes, and, with certain appropriate exceptions, will make available for war production or for any other essential services every able-bodied adult in the nation.'

The President added, however, that he 'would not recommend a national service law unless the other laws were passed to keep down the cost of living, to share equitably the burdens of taxation, to hold the stabilization line, and to prevent undue profits.' When the Seventy-Eighth Congress ended its sessions on Dec. 19 it had not passed a national service act, nor had it followed the other four recommendations to the extent that the administration had desired.

Budget.

On Jan. 13, the President presented the budget for the fiscal year July 1, 1944-June 30, 1945. The message revealed that $153,000,000,000 had been spent on pre-Pearl Harbor defense and post-Pearl Harbor war programs through the preceding month, predicted that actual expenditures on the war would rise to $202,000,000,000 by June 30, and estimated that appropriations of $99,769,000,000 would be needed for the period from July 1, 1944 to June 30, 1945 — of which $90,000,000 would go for war services. At the same time the message called for an early appropriation of $17,000,000,000, of which $10,000,000,000 would go for regular government agencies and $7,000,000,000 for war purposes. It intimated that in the spring detailed recommendations for an additional $53,000,000,000 in war appropriations would be made. (See also BUDGET OF THE UNITED STATES.)

Taxation.

On Feb. 7, Congress completed action on the tax bill which it estimated would increase the tax returns by $2,315,000,000. The House vote was 238 to 101 and the Senate adopted it by a voice vote. Principal increases in the bill were an estimated $664,900,000 in individual income taxes and $502,100,000 from a rise of 90 to 95 per cent in excess profits tax. The remaining increases were mainly from excise taxes. The bill froze social security taxes at 1 per cent, strengthened contract negotiation measures to meet the requests of the administration, provided that labor unions and other non-profit, tax-exempt organizations file annual financial reports, and limited business loss deductions to $50,000 where losses are reported for five consecutive years.

The President vetoed the bill (Feb. 22) in a scathing message which called it 'relief not for the needy but for the greedy.' The bill, he said, was 'wholly ineffective.' Instead of increasing the yield $10,500,000,000, as he had asked, the real net gain to the Treasury would not be more than $1,000,000,000. The bill, he said, stops the automatic increase of 1 per cent in Social Security taxes 'at a time when industry and labor are best able to adjust themselves to such increases.' He criticized the provisions ending renegotiation of war contracts as of Dec. 1, assailed Congress for failure to adopt simplified tax forms and charged that the bill favored special interests. He asked for a new bill 'to provide adequate revenue for wartime needs, fiscal support for the stabilization program to hold the tide against special privilege and to achieve real simplicity for millions of small income tax payers.'

Stung by what he branded as 'a calculated and deliberate assault upon the integrity of every member of Congress,' Senator Alben Barkley, majority leader of the Senate, resigned. The President sent a conciliatory message denying any such intention. The Senate reelected Barkley, and overrode the veto 72 to 14. The House also overrode the veto 299 to 95.

One of the President's recommendations, an income tax simplification bill, passed with little opposition May 23. The bill imposed slight tax increases on some groups and applied retroactively to income earned in 1944. It provided that an estimated 30,000,000 taxpayers might make returns on a simple form with the other estimated 20,000,000 finding the more extended form simpler than the previous one. The new act extended the application of the withholding tax to provide for tax collection at the source from all wage and salary earners with income up to $5,000.

Legislation for Service Men and Women.

The Senate on March 24 and the House on May 18 (unanimously in both houses) passed the Servicemen's Aid Act (signed June 22), an omnibus war veterans' aid measure providing for hospitalization, education and vocational training, loans for homes, farms and business, employment service and unemployment benefits. Rough estimates of the cost were put at between $3,000,000,000 and $6,500,000,000. Authorization was given for the construction of $500,000,000 worth of additional hospital facilities as a first step in the program. In the operation of the legislation the Veterans' Administration was given a status second only to the War and Navy Departments in priorities in personnel, equipment, supplies and material.

Any person, man or woman, who had not passed 24 years when inducted and who had served in the active military or naval service on or after Sept. 16, 1940, prior to the termination of the war and was discharged honorably after at least six months' duty, would be eligible, under the bill, for educational training in elementary, secondary, business or vocational schools, colleges, normal or graduate schools. Education and training would extend for one year or more, beginning not later than two years after the date of discharge, or two years after the termination of the war. As full-time students, veterans would be allowed $500 a year for tuition, not including board or other living expenses, and a subsistence allotment of $50 a month. A student with a dependent or dependents would receive an additional $25 a month.

Approved loans up to a total of $2,000 per veteran are obtainable for the purchase, construction or repair of homes, purchase of farms and farm equipment, or the buying of business properties. Such loans would bear no interest for the first year, but thereafter a rate of not more than 4 per cent a year compounded annually.

Employment service for the special benefit of veterans would be established in every state by the United States Employment Service, with concentration upon the registration of veterans, providing jobs and improvement of working conditions. Failure of the employment service of a state to give preference to qualified registered veterans on job assignments would be deemed cause for the withholding of federal employment funds until compliance with the act. Unemployment benefits of $20 a week would be available four weeks after the veteran had received his mustering-out pay and might continue for 52 weeks.

When the President signed the so-called 'G. I. Bill of Rights' he expressed the hope that Congress would provide similarly for the members of the Merchant Marine and speed up a program for the transition of war workers to peace jobs.

Another act of importance to service men and women, the so-called 'Soldiers' Vote Act' was passed in March and became a law without the President's signature. It is discussed under 'Politics.'

The Mustering-out Payment Bill was signed by the President on Feb. 4 when he described it as 'an important first step in the program of demobilization.' The law provides for payment of $100 to veterans with less than 60 days' active service. Those with active service of 60 days or more and with no foreign service are entitled to $200, payable in two monthly installments of $100. Those with service of 60 days or more who have had foreign service will receive $300, payable in three monthly installments. Those debarred included members of the armed forces not discharged under honorable conditions, those discharged or retired who receive retirement pay, those discharged or released from active duty on their own request to accept employment who have not served outside of the United States or Alaska, and those whose total active service has been as a student in one of the army training programs. Officers over the rank of captain in the Army or Marine Corps or lieutenants in the Navy or Coast Guard are also debarred from this payment.

On Sept. 28, the President signed a bill permitting the Women's Reserves of the Navy, Coast Guard, and Marines to serve anywhere in the Western Hemisphere.

Foreign Affairs.

Following the President's request Congress voted an extension of Lend-Lease. The House vote (April 19) was 334 to 21; all negative votes were by Republicans and all but one from the Midwestern states. The Senate passed the bill (May 7) by a vote of 63 to 1, the negative vote cast by William Langer of North Dakota. The Senate strengthened a House amendment, and as passed, the bill provided that nothing in the extension act should be construed to authorize the President to assume or incur any obligation on the part of the United States with respect to postwar economy or military policy involving international relations except 'in accordance with established constitutional procedure.' The legislation extended the program in full force only to June 30, 1945, but allowed until July 1, 1948, for carrying out agreements made prior to July 1, 1945. This third extension of the program was signed by the President May 17. On June 22 Congress lumped the appropriations for Lend-Lease and UNRRA together and voted $3,920,320,000. In the meantime the President, in his 15th report to Congress on Lend-Lease, stated that on Mar. 31, 1944, Lend-Lease aid totaled $24,224,806,000 and that 'the United Nations fighting partnership has been made far stronger by lend-lease and reverse lend-lease.'

Appropriations.

The Seventy-Eighth Congress during its two sessions appropriated approximately $182,000,000,000 and increased the national debt limit to $260,000,000,000. This included the biggest single supply bill of all time, a $59,000,000,000 War Department measure passed in 1943. To that sum it added $15,000,000,000 in 1944 to raise the Army's appropriations for the two years to $74,000,000,000. The Navy received approximately $57,000,000,000 during the two years, while other agencies described as directly connected with the war were given an estimated $14,000,000,000. Despite the huge appropriations of the second session, they were much less than those of the first session, dropping from approximately $115,000,000,000 in 1943 to $67,000,000,000 in 1944. This was the first sharp drop since the war started.

War Agencies.

The President won a major victory for price control when his veto of the bill extending the life of the Commodity Credit Corporation was sustained by the House 226-151 (Feb. 18). The Commodity Credit Corporation among its other duties is the agency through which the government subsidizes some 40 different agricultural products to prevent increased production costs from being passed on to the consumer. The bill vetoed by the President banned all subsidies save those on domestic vegetable oil seeds, sugar beets, sugar cane and flour for export. It also required adjustments in milk prices to force them upward.

In vetoing the bill, the President asserted that the measure, if enacted, would increase food costs at least 7 per cent, increase the whole cost of living materially and destroy the price-wage stabilization program. He could not accept responsibility, he said, for 'its disastrous consequences.' Having failed to override the veto, Congress extended the life of the CCC until June 30, 1945, with the right to grant subsidies (signed Feb. 28).

The bill extending the Price Control Act for another year was signed June 30. While the President praised Congress for passing the bill and enforcement officials for their work, he expressed concern lest the relaxation of penalties would 'weaken and obstruct the effective enforcement of the law.' Among the new features introduced into this act were the following: (1) It banned the broadening of the present $1,500,000,000 a year subsidy program and terminated subsidies after June 30, 1945, unless Congress appropriated funds directly for their continuance. (2) It forbade the establishment of any ceiling on fishery products at less than the average of such prices for 1942. (3) It allowed courts to stay judgment in enforcement proceedings to permit dependents to challenge the validity of the regulations involved. (4) It required suits for damages against OPA violators to be started in the court, district or county in which the defendant resides or has a place of business. (5) It reduced penalties for 'non-willful' price law violations, and increased the loan rate on cotton from 90 to 92½ per cent of parity.

Congress made a beginning with the problems of reconversion and handling surplus property in two bills signed Oct. 3. The first of these, the War Mobilization and Reconversion Act, established an Office of War Mobilization and Reconversion to coordinate all activities of the various agencies dealing with problems of reconversion. These included contract allotments and surplus property disposal, employment and vocational training, unemployment compensation and public works building (not including housing). As the President signed the bill he criticized it because it 'did not adequately deal with the human side of reconversion.' He pointed out that Congress had deleted from the original bill such provisions as unemployment benefits for an estimated 3,500,000 Federal workers and transportation costs to return migrant war workers to their homes or new jobs.

The Surplus Property Act authorized the setting up of a three-member board, whose activities should be coordinated with the programs of the armed forces, for the purpose of disposing of an estimated $100,000,000,000 worth of surplus war property. The act laid down 'methods of disposition' of war plants, surplus agricultural commodities, stock piles and surplus land. The President said that he signed the bill with 'considerable reluctance,' believing that 'the elaborate restrictions imposed by the bill will in many instances delay rather than expedite reconversion and re-employment.' He said that he was permitting the bill to become law in the hope that Congress would reconsider some provisions. After signing the two measures the President issued an executive order transferring all records, property and personnel from the Office of War Mobilization to the Office of War Mobilization and Reconversion. On Dec. 16, the Senate ratified by a strictly party vote the appointments to the Surplus Property Board of Robert A. Hurley, former Democratic Governor of Connecticut, and Colonel Edward H. Heller of California.

Miscellaneous.

The President (Dec. 16) reluctantly approved legislation freezing the Social Security payroll tax at 1 per cent for another year. At the same time he expressed the hope 'that a clear understanding of the government's financial responsibilities for social security will emerge' in the next Congress, and 'that a long-term program for allocating the costs of social security will be developed.'

The President announced on June 30 that he had approved two Congressional resolutions covering the policy of the United States toward the Philippines in the future. The first resolution makes it possible to proclaim independence as soon as practical after constitutional processes and normal functions of government have been restored. The measure also allowed the acquisition of air and land bases in addition to naval bases and fueling stations already allowed. The second resolution brought into effect the joint economic commission already provided for in the organic act and enlarged its scope to include consideration of proposals for the economic and financial rehabilitation of the Philippines.

A bill withdrawing citizenship from disloyal Japanese-Americans was signed July 3.

POLITICS

Presidential Candidates.

Formal preparations for the quadrennial presidential election began on Jan. 11 when the Republican National Committee selected Chicago for their National Convention. The Democratic National Committee met on Jan. 22, elected Robert R. Hannegan as chairman and also selected Chicago. It unanimously endorsed the eleven-year leadership of the President and asked him 'to continue as the great world humanitarian leader.' Senator Joseph C. O'Mahoney was later chosen as the senatorial campaign manager for the Democrats.

Although President Roosevelt refused to commit himself on a fourth term, it was clear from the beginning that he could obtain the nomination, if he so desired. Anti-New Deal Democrats from 14 states, led by former Secretary of War Harry H. Woodring, met on Feb. 4 and organized the American Democratic Committee to oppose a fourth term. It continued active until the end, but evidently exerted little influence. The only important political revolt against the President occurred in Texas. Here the Democratic State Committee split over instructing national convention delegates for Roosevelt. After the Roosevelt supporters had bolted an uninstructed delegation was named. Even this anti-Roosevelt delegation split at the convention. A post-convention primary test in Texas showed the voters overwhelmingly in favor of Roosevelt. The main Democratic problem turned out to be the choice of a Vice-President.

The Republican Party, on the other hand, with prospects brighter than for many years, had no dearth of candidates. These included Wendell L. Willkie, unsuccessful standard bearer in 1940; Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York, a leading contender for the Republican nomination in 1940, and Governor John W. Bricker of Ohio. Minor strength developed for General Douglas MacArthur and for Lieutenant Commander Harold E. Stassen, who had resigned the governorship of Minnesota to accept a commission in the Navy. At least two of these candidates voluntarily withdrew early in the campaign. General MacArthur on April 5 said he had not sought office 'nor do I seek it,' but seemed to leave the door open. On April 29, however, he stated that agitation for a military man was 'detrimental to the war effort' and that 'I do not want it [the nomination], nor would I accept it.'

In the meantime Wendell L. Willkie decided to stake his chances for the nomination on the results of the Wisconsin primary. He conducted an aggressive campaign primarily on a basis that the Republicans should take a stronger stand for internationalism. The results of the primary (April 4) gave Dewey 15 pledged delegates, MacArthur and Stassen 3 each with 3 unpledged delegates reported to favor Dewey. Willkie had made it clear that he regarded the Wisconsin primary as a test of Republican policy. When he failed to win a single delegate, he asked his friends to desist from further support of his nomination and that his name not be presented at the convention. Since Willkie was the only candidate strong enough seriously to challenge Dewey, the chances of the latter were enormously increased by this withdrawal.

Except for the American Labor Party and the Liberal Party the minor parties played but a slight role in the campaign. The Communist Party announced (Jan. 10) that it was abandoning its function as a political party. Instead on May 21 it organized the Communist Political Association. Its influence during the campaign was thrown behind President Roosevelt, and its members in New York worked when possible through the American Labor Party. The American Labor Party in New York on Aug. 10 endorsed Roosevelt. In the meantime a new party, the Liberal Party, was organized on May 19 of a 'right wing' faction of the American Labor Party who had left that organization after the 'left wing' had won control. The Liberal Party endorsed Roosevelt, Wallace and Senator Wagner of New York (May 20). The Prohibition Party nominated Claude A. Watson for the presidency (Jan. 9). The Socialist Labor Party (April 30) nominated Edward A. Teichert for president and Arla A. Albaugh for Vice-President. The Socialist Party (June 4) nominated Norman Thomas and Darlington Hoopes, denounced the Democratic Party for neglecting its program of progressive legislation, assailed plans for a postwar alliance of the four great powers, urged offering Germany an armistice and advocated social equality, economic security, and socialism.

The Soldier Vote.

Much attention was given throughout the campaign to the question of the voting by the 11,000,000 men and women in the armed forces. The question of how many of these votes would be cast and for whom made the subject a live issue from the start. The main problem was to make it as easy as possible for the service men to vote, particularly the 5,000,000 overseas. Congress rejected a plan (favored by the President) for a single Federal ballot and also another plan leaving the entire matter up to the states. In March it finally passed a bill permitting service men overseas to use a Federal ballot provided (1) they applied for and failed to receive a state ballot and (2) that the governors of their home states certify that the Federal ballot was acceptable under state law.

Since the effectiveness of such a law depended largely on how many states would certify that the Federal ballot was acceptable, the President polled the governors on their attitude. Many of the replies were confusing, but it appeared that 21 states were ready to accept the Federal ballot or might accept it under certain conditions; 22 either rejected it or appeared likely to do so, while four were doubtful. Describing the bill as wholly inadequate, the President sent a message to Congress Mar. 31 indicating that he would allow the bill to become law without his signature. He urged the states to make the bill as effective as possible and urged Congress to amend the law so as 'to authorize all service men and women, who have not received their state ballots by an appropriate date, whether or not they have formally applied for them to use the Federal ballot without prior express authorization by the states.' Congress did not respond. The problem of the soldiers' vote remained an enigma until after the election. Final count showed that about 2,800,000 had voted either through the Federal ballot or one of the state ballots.

Republican Convention.

By the time the Republican convention met on June 26, the nomination for the presidency was virtually decided. Governor Bricker had fought an aggressive campaign for the nomination and there developed behind him a 'stop-Dewey' movement which many thought might be strong enough to cause a deadlock and prevent Dewey's nomination. These hopes vanished when the convention met. Republican leaders were certain that Dewey had the best chances and had no intention of ruining them or of allowing a deadlock to take place — all this despite the fact that Dewey had never admitted that he was a candidate. His name, however, had been entered in the state primaries without his opposition. Governor Dwight Griswold of Nebraska made the chief nomination speech for Dewey. When Governor Bricker saw the overwhelming trend for the convention, he withdrew from the race, telling the convention that 'this is an hour when the party's success is more important than any man's ambitions.' The final count for Dewey on the first ballot was 1,056 to 1 for MacArthur. Most Republican leaders, including Dewey, preferred Governor Earl Warren for second place, but upon his refusal the delegates turned to Governor Bricker and gave him the unanimous nomination. Addressing the convention on the night of his nomination (June 28) Dewey exhorted his followers to drive the 'tired and quarrelsome administration out of office,' promised to keep 'the military conduct of the war outside this campaign' and to put 'an end to one-man government in Washington.'

The platform proved more difficult than the nominations, particularly that having to do with foreign policy. Said the platform, 'We shall seek to achieve [peace and freedom based on justice and security] through organized international cooperation and not by joining a world state.' It did, however, 'favor responsible participation by the United States in postwar cooperative organization among sovereign nations to prevent military aggression and to attain permanent peace with organized justice in a free world.' 'Such organization,' said the platform, 'should develop effective cooperative means to direct peace forces to prevent or repel military aggression. Pending this we pledge continuing collaboration with the United Nations to assure these ultimate objectives.' These planks, while general, were advanced enough to allow a strong leader to go far toward an international policy.

On domestic policy the platform stressed encouragement of private enterprise in reconversion, lower taxes, a tariff plank that limited reciprocal trade agreements to those approved by Congress, 'state rights' as against an increase in Federal power. While critical of Federal power and bitter against the New Deal, it appeared to support the major New Deal policies with regard to agriculture and labor. Opposition was confined to minor policies or to methods of administration.

Democratic Convention.

Like Mr. Dewey, President Roosevelt was not a formal candidate, although his name had also been entered in the primaries. In fact, a majority of the delegates had been instructed to vote for him. Not until June 11, one week before the Democratic National Convention (July 19-22), did the President say what all expected. 'If the convention should carry this [the nomination] out, and nominate me for the presidency, I shall accept. If the people elect me, I will serve ... I would accept and serve, but I would not run in the usual partisan, political sense. But if the people command me to continue in this office and in this war, I have as little right to withdraw as the soldier has to leave his post of battle.'

The Roosevelt leaders came to the convention with a majority of delegates in their control. His nomination on the first ballot was expected. The count was 1,086 to 90, of which Senator Harry F. Byrd of Virginia received 89 and James A. Farley one. The nominating speech for Roosevelt was made by Senator Alben Barkley of Kentucky, Senate majority leader. Vice-president Wallace made one of the seconding speeches. The President accepted the nomination in a radio address from an unnamed naval base on the Pacific coast, asserting that he would 'not campaign in the usual sense' but would 'feel free to report to the people on matters that concern them and especially to correct any misapprehensions.'

The chief interest in the convention was not in the nomination of Roosevelt, which was a foregone conclusion, but in the choice of the vice-presidential candidate. Conservative Democrats, opposed to the liberalism of Wallace, had been busy instigating booms for other candidates and trying to convince the party that Wallace was a political liability. Among those mentioned were Senator Harry S. Truman of Missouri, Director of War Mobilization James F. Byrnes and Supreme Court Justice William O. Douglas. The President in a letter to Chairman Hannegan five days before the convention mildly endorsed Wallace, but shortly after in a second note wrote 'You have written me about Harry Truman and Bill Douglas. I should, of course, be very glad to run with either of them and believe that either one of them would bring real strength to the ticket.' Roosevelt's failure to come out strongly for Wallace undoubtedly cost him the nomination. Wallace led on the first ballot 429½ to 319½ for Truman, his nearest opponent. On the second Truman was nominated by a vote of 1,031 to 105 for Wallace.